A System Dynamics Modelling of Urban Water Demand Forecasting for Madurai City
Journal Title: International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology (IJRASET) - Year 2017, Vol 5, Issue 2
Abstract
Water is important for all kind activities in the present world. Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must consider a variety of factors are Climate, Depletion of Resources, Urbanization, Socio-Economical issues etc., which are not stable in nature. For water demand estimation, Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression, time series analysis, and advanced modeling techniques are often applied for short and long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in structures of modeling. System Dynamics modeling has been chosen because it considers the socio-economic factors which are dynamic in nature. It is an iterative technique which helps to arrive at the accurate demand. The objectives of this study were to thoroughly review water demand forecasting models and propose a new system dynamics model to identify the water demand estimation by addressing the complex Socio-economic factors for long-term municipal water demand forecasts of Madurai City. Some steps of System dynamics modeling process was used in this study, which includes problem articulation, model formulation, model simulation and result validation. System Dynamics simulation results the estimation of water demand by 2040 for the selected study area. The study results indicate that total demand of Madurai city increases in each decade and supply are being insufficient.
Authors and Affiliations
Gokila Vani
Keywords
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- EP ID EP23119
- DOI http://doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2017.2030
- Views 261
- Downloads 7
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