An illusion of control modulates the reluctance to tempt fate
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2011, Vol 6, Issue 7
Abstract
The tempting fate effect is that the probability of a fateful outcome is deemed higher following an action that “tempts” the outcome than in the absence of such an action. In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the effect is due to an illusion of control induced by a causal framing of the situation. Causal frames require that the action make a difference to an outcome and that the action precedes the outcome. If an illusion of control modulates the reluctance to tempt fate, then actions that make a difference to well-being and that occur prior to the outcome should tempt fate most strongly. In Experiments 1–3 we varied whether the action makes a difference and the temporal order of action and outcome. In Experiment 4 we tested whether an action can tempt fate if all outcomes are negative. The results of all four experiments supported our hypothesis that the tempting fate effect depends on a causal construal that gives rise to a false sense of control.
Authors and Affiliations
Chloe L. Swirsky, Philip M. Fernbach, and Steven A. Sloman
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP677852
- DOI -
- Views 134
- Downloads 0
The persistence of common-ratio effects in multiple-play decisions
People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For example, previous research has shown that the certainty effect and the possib...
Using the ACT-R architecture to specify 39 quantitative process models of decision making
Hypotheses about decision processes are often formulated qualitatively and remain silent about the interplay of decision, memorial, and other cognitive processes. At the same time, existing decision models are specified...
The rich get richer and the poor get poorer: On risk aversion in behavioral decision-making
Some studies have found that choices become more risk averse after gains and more risk seeking after losses, although other studies have found the opposite. The latter tend to use hypothetical cases that encourage delibe...
Modeling option and strategy choices with connectionist networks: Towards an integrative model of automatic and deliberate decision making
We claim that understanding human decisions requires that both automatic and deliberate processes be considered. First, we sketch the qualitative differences between two hypothetical processing systems, an automatic and...
Sacred values and conflict over Iran’s nuclear program
Conflict over Iran’s nuclear program, which involves a US-led policy to impose sanctions on Iran, is perceived by each side as a preeminent challenge to its own national security and global peace. Yet, there is little sc...