Application of ARIMA model in predicting pediatric red blood cell usage
Journal Title: Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion - Year 2023, Vol 36, Issue 9
Abstract
Objective To explore the feasibility of using autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the dosage of suspended red blood cells in children, and to provide a basis for the development of clinical blood reserve plans in children's hospitals. Methods ARIMA model was constructed using the total blood consumption of clinical suspended red blood cells from March 2016 to May 2022 at the Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University as the data source by SPSS26.0 software. The optimal model was used to predict the clinical suspended red blood cell consumption from June to October 2022, and the predictive effect of the model was tested. Results ARIMA(0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 was the optimal model for predicting the consumption of suspended red blood cells in pediatrics. The autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of the residual sequence basically fell within the 95% confidence interval. At the same time, Ljung-Box Q statistical results showed that there was no correlation between the residual (P>0.05), indicating that the residual was white noise, which met the randomicity hypothesis. The average relative error between the predicted values of the model and the actual clinical red blood cell usage from June to October 2022 was 5%, indicating high prediction accuracy. Conclusion The blood usage of children has obvious seasonal and periodic patterns, and the optimal model ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 can better fit the trend of changes in pediatric suspended red blood cell usage, thus providing a basis for the development of clinical blood reserve plans in children's hospitals.
Authors and Affiliations
Yuanqi YANG, Bolin HE, Pusheng WEN, Xuesong PENG, Juan HU, Yuxia GUO
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP738643
- DOI 10.13303/j.cjbt.issn.1004-549x.2023.09.016
- Views 48
- Downloads 0
In vitro quality evaluation of leucocyte-reduced pooled platelet concentrates prepared from whole blood stored at 4℃
Objective To investigate the feasibility of leucocyte-reduced pooled platelet concentrates from whole blood stored at 4℃, and provide theoretical basis for the components preparation. Methods The collected 400 mL ACD-B a...
Efficacy and safety of platelet-rich plasma for acute achilles tendon injury: a meta-analysis
Objective To evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of platelet-rich plasma(PRP) in acute achilles tendon injury by meta-analysis. Methods Literature on clinical randomized controlled trial of PRP in the treatment of...
Systemic lupus erythematosus induced thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura treated with plasma exchange combined with high-dose steroid pulse therapy: a case report
Objective To analyze the clinical outcomes of a patient with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura(TTP) as the starting performance who was considered as systemic lupus erythematosus(SLE) under multiple abnormal autoantibo...
Severity and multiple indexes of jaundice in ABO hemolytic disease of fetus and newborn: a comparative analysis
Objective To explore the correlation between the severity of jaundice in ABO hemolytic disease of fetus and newborn (HDFN) and multiple indicators, in order to achieve accurate diagnosis, timely treatment, and prevent co...
Factors affecting the efficacy of platelet transfusion and specificity of HLA-Ⅰ antibodies in tumor patients
Objective To analyze the factors affecting the efficacy of platelet transfusion and the specificity of HLA-Ⅰ antibodies in tumor patients. Methods Tumer patients applied for platelet transfusion from November 2019 to Jul...