APPLICATION SARIMA MODELS ON TIME SERIES TO FORECAST THE NUMBER OF DEATH IN HOSPITAL
Journal Title: International Journal of Applied Mathematics & Statistical Sciences - Year 2018, Vol 7, Issue 4
Abstract
This paper aims to predict the number of deaths at Mansoura University Children's Hospital by using SARIMA models. It is necessary to use death data to determine the health requirement for hospital and measure medical efficiency within the hospital. We take the death data in hospital from Jan. 2011 to Dec 2017. We concluded that the model SARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1) is the best model which gives us the lowest value for each of RMSE and BIC, approximately lowest value for MAE and the largest value for R2.
Authors and Affiliations
Hanaa Elgohari Elgohari1, Mohammed AbdulMajeed, Ahmed Elrefaey Elrefaey
Keywords
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