Construction of the econometric model of the tobacco products market
Journal Title: Економіка. Фінанси. Право - Year 2018, Vol 9, Issue
Abstract
The tobacco market is a specific market: on the one hand, the use of tobacco products is harmful to humans, and on the other hand, complete elimination of it will lead to significant revenue losses to the budget of Ukraine and the transition of the legal market into illegal one. Several factors should be taken into account when determining the level and dynamics of excise tax rates for tobacco products. These factors include, first, the level of real incomes of the population, the share of expenditures for tobacco products, consumers’ reaction to the increased prices for tobacco products; secondly, consideration of the current situation in the tobacco products consumer market, the processes of concentration and monopolization, production dynamics, export-import flows; thirdly, consideration of social aspects of tobacco products consumption, deterioration of the overall health of the population, promotion of a healthy lifestyle, lowering the level of diseases of the respiratory system, etc. The work objective is to develop a multidimensional econometric model of the tobacco market in Ukraine. The target of research is a system of indicators characterizing the tobacco products consumption, the share of illegal turnover and the receipt of excise tax. On the basis of correlation, regression analysis a multivariate econometric model of tobacco market in Ukraine. With the help of necessary and sufficient conditions, the identification of each of the equations of the system was established. The constructed model allows obtaining a forecast of the dynamics of consumption of tobacco products, shares of illegal circulation and excise tax revenues. The work has also defined trends of exogenous variable models and their corresponding predictive values, namely the dynamics of tobacco products consumption, the share of illegal turnover and the receipt of excise tax. Calculations of the average growth rate have shown that there is a tendency for a decrease in the dynamics of tobacco products consumption, the share of illegal turnover and the receipt of excise tax.
Authors and Affiliations
Olena Volodymyrivna Poshyvalova
Keywords
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