Convective phenomena forecasting based on output data of numerical models available in the Hydrometeorological Centre of the Republic of Belarus
Journal Title: Український гідрометеорологічний журнал - Year 2017, Vol 19, Issue 19
Abstract
In the article you can read about the methods used for forecasting convective processes by means of output products of numerical models with various spatial resolution. It presents the methods for forecasting convective phenomena applied in the Hydrometeorological Centre of the Republic of Belarus. The state of the atmosphere affected by intensive convection over the terri-tory of the Republic of Belarus on July 13, 2016 is analyzed. The categorial evaluation of the thunderstorm forecasting methods by G.D. Reshetov and I.A. Slavin is specified with the respec-tive results presented. The article analyzes the forecast of convective phenomena conducted with the help of the non-hydrostatic regional model WRF-ARW. Use of convective instability indices and calculation methods can facilitate convective phe-nomena forecasting. The advantage of their use consists in possibility of their application within the areas not covered by aerological sounding. However, selection of indicators of instability and methods of thunderstorm and other dangerous phenomena forecasting depends on features of an area under study and this requires further research. To ensure more accurate convective phenomena forecasting it is necessary to consider radar, satellite and aerological observations when conducting numerical model calculations. The results of the research showed that convective phenomena forecasting requires use of models with a high spatial resolution.
Authors and Affiliations
M. I. Prokharenya
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP327978
- DOI 10.31481/uhmj.19.2017.07
- Views 90
- Downloads 0
Development of the methodology of estimating of agricultural crop yield potential with consideration of climate and agrophytotechnology impact
In the paper it is outlined the main methodological positions and the results of the approbation of new approaches to the integrated assessment of the potential of crop yields. There are considered the theoretical founda...
Technologies of making meteorological weather forecasts implemented in the Hydrometeorological Department of the Respublic of Belarus
The article describes the methods of making short-term weather forecasts and storm warnings in the Hydrometeorological Department of the Republic of Belarus using different sources of information (monitoring of synoptic...
Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk Region
The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weat...
Hydrological factors of formation of oxygen regime of inland seas
Introduction. The regularities of the formation and dynamics of the oxygen regime in inland seas - the Black Sea and Caspian, under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors are estimated. Purpose. One of the fe...
Results of the numerical modelling of intra-annual variability of characteristics of the hydrological regime of the Kuyalnik Liman lagoon
In order to solve the problems of diagnosis and forecast of spatial-temporal variability of hydrological characteristics of the Kuyalnik Liman (water level, salinity and temperature) which cause chemical and biological p...