EFEKTI MEGA-REGIONALNIH SPORAZUMA NA MULTILATERALNI TRGOVINSKI SUSTAV -THE EFFECTS OF MEGA-REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS ON THE MULTILATERAL TRADING SYSTEM
Journal Title: EMC Review: Časopis za ekonomiju i tržišne komunikacije - Year 2016, Vol 6, Issue 2
Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the motives and effects of mega-regional trade agreements on the multilateral trading system using the example of Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Multilateralism and regionalism, although opposite trends, coexist simultaneously. While many arguments can be given for both approaches one has to recognize that the number of regional trade agreements is increasing and that regionalism is becoming a prevailing trend. The response to the regional trade agreements, especially mega-regionals, will mostly depend upon the effect on the third countries’ trade interests. Since it is expected that, over time, many of the currently excluded emerging economies will become a part of some mega-regional agreement, it is not likely that new global standards and rules will be created on a strictly regional but rather on multilateral level. Cilj ovog rada je ispitati motive i posljedice sklapanja mega-regionalnih trgovinskih sporazuma na multilateralni trgovinski sustav koristeći pritom primjere Trans-Pacifičkog Partnerstva (TPP) i Transatlantskog sporazuma o trgovini i investicijama (TTIP). Multilateralizam i regionalizam, iako suprotni trendovi, koegzistiraju istovremeno. Mnogo je argumenata u korist oba pristupa, no činjenica je da je broj regionalnih trgovinskih sporazumima u porastu i da regionalizam postaje široko prihvaćen trend. Odgovor na regionalne trgovinske sporazume, a osobito na mega-regionalne sporazume, uglavnom će ovisiti o učinku na trgovinske interese trećih zemalja. Kada je riječ o mega-regionalnim sporazumima poput TPP-a i TTIP-a, očekuje se da većina izvoznih sektora uključenih zemalja neće biti pogođena, jer su carine među zemljama članicama ionako niske. Upravo stoga se očekuje znatno veći učinak od smanjivanja necarinskih prepreka i ovisit će o obuhvatu prepreka te razlikama u regulaciji. Pozitivni učinci očekuju se putem dohodovnog učinka. Naime, hipotetski gledano, nakon što sporazumi stupe na snagu, SAD i EU će vjerojatno da će postati bogatije i povećati svoju proizvodnju, kao i potražnju za dobrima i resursima, čime će zemlje unutar američkog i europskog proizvodnog lanca također ostvariti koristi od povećane potražnje. Budući da se s vremenom očekuje da će većina trenutno isključenih zemalja u razvoju postati dio nekog mega-regionalnog sporazuma, nije vjerojatno stvaranje novih globalnih standarda i pravila isključivo na regionalnoj, već ipak na multilateralnoj razini. Dakle, može se zaključiti da će regionalizam i multilateralizam i dalje istovremeno koegzistirati.
Authors and Affiliations
Vlatka Bilas, Sanja Franc
Keywords
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- EP ID EP247407
- DOI 10.7251/EMC1602212B
- Views 136
- Downloads 0
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