Ensemble GCMs Climate Change Projections for Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan under Representative Concentration Pathways
Journal Title: GRD Journal for Engineering - Year 2017, Vol 2, Issue 5
Abstract
The aim of study is to project the future climate of the Kabul River Basin of Afghanistan under the recent IPCC AR5 data set . The SimCLIM model was applied for climate modeling. A multi- model ensemble was used for best representation of future climate under the selected RCP4.5 and 8.5 pathways with time span of 2021-2040 (2030s), 2051-2070 (2060s) and 2081-2100 (2090s) with respect to baseline of 1961-2010. The output of multi-model ensemble climate modeling illustrated a considerable change in temperature and precipitation of the basin. The potential seasonal change of Tmax under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 pathways demonstrated peek rise in the winter season and lowest increases in the summer months, the change not exceed from 4.49˚C in winter and 3.96˚C in the summer by end of the century. In addition, under both pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5 the future Tmin depicted high rise at winter and lowest increase at the spring months, under the high emission scenario RCP8.5 the Tmin projected to increase by 4.53˚C and 3.49˚C at winter and spring respectively by the end of this century. However, the overall multi-model ensemble results of future seasonal precipitation pattern showed both downtrend and upward trend in spring and summer at all three periods, under RCP 8.5 the percentage of downtrend and upward projected (-5.02%) in autumn and (+1.55%) in winter by end of the century with respect to baseline, under this pathway the overall annual precipitation pattern simulated to decrease (-2.18%) by end this century.
Authors and Affiliations
Mohmmad Hassan Hassanyar, Sediqa Hassani, Jeff Dozier
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP224379
- DOI -
- Views 80
- Downloads 0
Assessment of Mass Bathing On River Water Quality during Simhastha Mahakumbh Mela 2016 in Ujjain, Madhya Pradesh India
The primary aim of the study was to assess few impacts on River water quality of Mass gathering and taking a holy dip during Maha Kumbhmela from 22 april 2016 to 21 may 2016 in Ujjain City and to make a comparison of few...
Analysis of Regenerative Energy Potential in More Electric Aircraft (MEA)
Optimum utilization of Electrical Energy on board an aircraft is a major concern because the aircraft technology is advancing more towards an electrically optimized aircraft. The major objective of More Electric Aircraft...
An Efficient VLSI Execution of Data Transmission Error Detection and Correction Based Bloom Filter
Channel coding is commonly incorporated to obtain sufficient reception quality in wireless mobile communications transceiver to counter channel degradation due to inter-symbol interference, multipath dispersion, and ther...
Ancient Civilisation Study through Dholavira Archaeological Site in Kutch District: A Study
An archaeological site is a place or group of physical sites in which evidence of past activity is preserved (which is either prehistoric or historic or contemporary), and which has been, or may be, investigated using th...
A Sterling Method to Detect both Terrorist and Missiles
Automatic detection of explosives and terrorist using wireless sensor networks monitors and tracks the explosives that are placed by terrorists at public Environments. There are two individual systems which are interconn...