Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran
Journal Title: Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine - Year 2019, Vol 9, Issue 6
Abstract
Objective: To establish an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran in 2016. Methods: Time-series data were recorded from 29 201 cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 25 cities of Fars province from 2010 to 2015 and were used to fit and predict the cases using time-series models. Different models were compared via Akaike information criterion/ Bayesian information criterion statistics, residual analysis, autocorrelation function, and partial autocorrelation function sample/model. To decide on an outbreak, four endemic scores were evaluated including mean, median, mean + 2 standard deviations, and median + interquartile range of the past five years. Patients whose symptoms of cutaneous leishmaniasis began from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were included, and there were no exclusion criteria. Results: Regarding four statistically significant endemic values, four different cutaneous leishmaniasis space-time outbreaks were detected in 2016. The accuracy of all four endemic values was statistically significant (P<0.05). Conclusions: This study presents a protocol to set early warning systems regarding time and space features of cutaneous leishmaniasis in four steps: (i) to define endemic values based on which we could verify if there is an outbreak, (ii) to set different time-series models to forecast cutaneous leishmaniasis in future, (iii) to compare the forecasts with endemic values and decide on space-time outbreaks, and (iv) to set an alarm to health managers.
Authors and Affiliations
Marjan Zare, Abbas Rezaianzadeh, Hamidreza Tabatabaee, Hossain Faramarzi, Mohsen Aliakbarpour, Mostafa Ebrahimi
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP594846
- DOI 10.4103/2221-1691.260395
- Views 69
- Downloads 0
Probiotic bacteria attenuates cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity through modulation of oxidative stress, inflammation and apoptosis in rats
Objective: To investigate the effects of probiotic bacteria on cisplatin (CP)-induced nephrotoxicity. Methods: In the present study, 50 Sprague-Dawley rats were used and randomly divided into five groups including contro...
Antidiarrhoeal activity of leaf methanolic extract of Rauwolfia serpentina
Objective To evaluate the antidiarrhoeal property of methanol extract of the leaves of Rauwolfia serpentina (R. serpentina) in experimental diarrhoea induced by castor oil in mice. Methods Doses of 100, 200 and 400 mg...
Comparative assessment of intestinal helminths prevalence in Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) intervention and non-intervention communities in Abeokuta, Nigeria
Objective: This study compared the prevalence of intestinal helminths in Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) intervention and non-intervention communities in Abeokuta, Nigeria. Methods: Stool samples were collected from...
Molecular mechanisms of the anti-obesity potential effect of Moringa oleifera in the experimental model
Objective: To elucidate the molecular mechanisms of the potent anti-obesity effect of Moringa oleifera Lam. (M. oleifera) ethanolic extract and to clarify the link between these mechanisms and the associated metabolic an...
Assessment of co-segregated TLR4 genotypes among Nigerian children with asymptomatic and clinical malaria
Objective: To assess the occurrence and pattern of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) cosegregated genotypes among children with Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Nigeria. Methods: In this case-control study, a total of 79 Plasm...