Forecasting socio-economic development in Ukraine including influence of shadow schemes for capital outflow
Journal Title: Вісник Житомирського державного технологічного університету. Серія: економіка, управління та адміністрування - Year 2018, Vol 86, Issue 4
Abstract
Shadow trends in economy have become one of the most principal issues of the world community and cause the emergence of new threats to the national security of the state as well as slowing down the speed of socio-economic development. The article substantiates that the most spread channels for shadowing the profits of economic entities in Ukraine is taxation deviation or avoidance (fiscal channel) and capital outflow abroad (investment channel). The authors propose the scientific and methodical approach to assess the future influence of illegal schemes of running businesses through investment and tax mechanisms on the socio-economic development of Ukraine. The present approach allows to forecast the possible indices of socio-economic development of the country keeping the existing development trends in the shadow economy, and to determine the quantitative values of the necessary level of reducing the indices, which cause the intensification of using the illegal schemes that will help reach the needed purpose-oriented indices of socio-economic development in Ukraine. To formalize the interconnection of the socio-economic development indices with the illegal schemes of running businesses the authors use the system of simultaneous linear multifactor regressive equations. The article determines the deviation level of forecasting indices for socio-economic development of Ukraine from the purpose-oriented guidelines cause by the activities of illegal schemes of running businesses through investment and tax mechanisms. In addition, to reach the state socio-economic development purpose-oriented indices the authors quantitatively determine the necessary level of increasing the indices of characteristic of illegal schemes of running businesses.
Authors and Affiliations
O. V. Kuzmenko, A. O. Boyko, V. V. Bozhenko
Keywords
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