Інструментальний аналіз розриву ВВП в Україні
Journal Title: Економіка і прогнозування - Year 2018, Vol 18, Issue 1
Abstract
Based on modern approaches to constructing a production function, the article estimates the GDP gap (the gap between actual real GDP and potential GDP) in the Ukrainian economy during the period from 2000 to 2017, as well as the current and forecasted dynamics of the factors making a significant impact on the size of Ukraine's GDP. On the results of the decomposition of the GDP gap, the authors identify the most influential factors shaping the trend of this country’s economic growth. The article proposes a model tool for estimating the GDP gap based on the structure of extended production function with five integral indicators as explanatory factors of resource provision (production, human, scientific-technological, financial, foreign, and economic). It is calculated that the gap of the potential GDP to the level of 1990, in the optimistic variant, can be overcome already in 2019–2020, although under the pessimistic scenario it will still amount to -11.6% in 2020, and in the baseline it will be reduced to -7.2%. The authors carry out a tool based analysis of the GDP gap reduction, in particular: with reduced unemployment, with increased volume of gross fixed capital formation, with an overcome of the significant real wage disparities and real labor productivity, etc. On the whole, the reduction of the "recession" GDP gap in Ukraine will be affected by: reduced unemployment (according to our calculations, the reduction in unemployment from 9.4% in 2017 to 9.2% in 2018 will result in a 0.1% reduction of the GDP); a considerable increase of the gross fixed capital formation (in the medium term, Ukraine should target at least 20% of GDP, and in the long run - up to 25%), which will facilitate the transition of the Ukrainian economy to the modernization mode; a gradual increase in real wages both due to rising nominal wages and lower inflation (wage growth rates in real terms should correspond to the real growth rates of labor productivity); and an increase in the aggregate level of labor productivity, first of all, due to intensified innovation. According to our calculations, an increase in R&D expenditures from 0.6% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP in 2017 would reduce the GDP gap by more than a half. Overcoming the gap in GDP should become an important constructive component of the economic development of Ukraine's economy in the medium and long term.
Authors and Affiliations
Марія Скрипниченко, Ганна Яценко
Асиметричність розвитку промислового сегмента ринку праці України
The article deals with the scale, qualitative parameters and structural and dynamic characteristics of employment in the industrial complex of Ukraine, as well as identifies the imbalances of the sectoral labor market an...
Global structural transformations and trends in Ukrainian economy. Part 1. Key Trends in Structural Economic Changes in the World and Ukraine
The article, which consists of two parts, discusses the issues of long-term structural shifts in the Ukrainian economy against the background of structural transformations in the world economy during the last quarter-cen...
Використання фільтрів Карунена-Лоева для прогнозування поведінки валютного маркету
One of the tasks of trading is to predict the behavior of the price of currency market transactions in order to timely enter into an agreement. The purpose of the article is to describe a proposed forecasting technique a...
Моделювання діагностики банкрутства суб'єктів страхового ринку України на основі гармонійного аналізу
Розглядається сутнісна характеристика та наводиться математична формалізація підходу до діагностики банкрутства суб'єктів страхового ринку. Проаналізовано ознаковий простір оцінювання банкрутства суб'єктів страхового рин...
Фермерський потенціал домогосподарств: методичні підходи до оцінювання та розвитку
Based on extended interpretation of the essence of farming, the article outlines the boundaries of the farming segment in Ukrainian agriculture. This farming segment includes not only registered farms, but also those hou...