Mauritius and Risk of Debt Crises: Evidence from Dynamic Stochastic Model and Arima Forecast
Journal Title: International Journal of Scientific Research and Management - Year 2017, Vol 5, Issue 10
Abstract
The paper employs dynamic stochastic approach and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to investigate the external debt status of Mauritius, following recent weak export performances and insinuation of debt crises. The study establishes that, Mauritius was free of debt crisis over the years till mid - 2000s when the debt crises began to set in and escalated since 2009 till date. The paper also found that debt increase will persist till 2022, before it will stabilize and remain steady above the o ptimal size require for economic probity. The study therefore suggests economic overhauling of management strategies as against the current palliative measures introduced by the government.
Authors and Affiliations
Adebayo ADEDOKUN
Keywords
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