Maximum daily rainfall analysis at selected meteorological stations in the upper Lusatian Neisse River basin
Journal Title: Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Research and Operational Applications - Year 2016, Vol 4, Issue 1
Abstract
The scope of this study was to assess the usefulness of top probability distributions to describe maximum rainfall data in the Lusatian Neisse River basin, based on eight IMWM-NRI meteorological stations. The research material was composed of 50-year precipitation series of daily totals from 1961 to 2010. Measurement data series were supplemented using weighted average method. Homogeneity for refilled data were investigated by precipitation double aggregation curve. Correlation between the measurement data varied from 96 to 99% and did not indicate a disorder in the homogeneity of rainfall data series. Variability of recorded daily precipitation maxima were studied by linear regression and non-parametric Mann-Kendalls test. Long-term period changes at maximum rainfalls for four station remained as statistically insignificant, and for other four were significant, although the structure of maximums were relatively similar. To describe the measured data, there were used the Fréchet, Gamma, Generalized Exponential Distribution (GED), Gumbel, Log-normal and Weibull distributions. Particular distribution parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The conformity of the analyzed theoretical distributions with measured data was inspected using the Schwarz Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and also by the relative residual mean square error (RRMSE). Among others, the Gamma, GED, and Weibull distributions fulfilled the compliance criterion for each meteorological station respectively. The BIC criterion indicated GED as the best; however differences were minor between GED on the one hand and the Gamma and Weibull distributions on the other. After the conduction of the RRMSE analysis it was found that, in comparison to the other distributions, GED best describes the measured maximum rainfall data.
Authors and Affiliations
Marcin Wdowikowski, Bartosz Kaźmierczak, Ondrej Ledvinka
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP572954
- DOI 10.26491/mhwm/63361
- Views 67
- Downloads 0
Precipitation estimation and nowcasting at IMGW-PIB (SEiNO system)
A System for the Estimation and Nowcasting of Precipitation (SEiNO) is being developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. Its aim is to provide the national meteorological...
Causes of periodical rainfall distribution and long-term forecast of precipitation for Lankaran, Azerbaijan
Irregular rainfall distribution is receiving considerable attention. The amount of rainfall for one region can account for 500-600 mm, sometimes 1000 mm. For example, in the year 1985, Zagtala in Azerbaijan received 716...
MeteoGIS: GIS-based system for monitoring of severe meteorological phenomena
The MeteoGIS system developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute in Poland is a GIS-based system for real-time monitoring of weather and the generation of meteorological wa...
Analysis of instruments for assessment of planned investments in water management
Integrated water resource management is a process oriented towards sustainable development through the shaping, allocation and monitoring of water resources, taking into account social, economic and environmental objecti...
A new approach to the method of drawing the Gaussen-Walter climate diagram
In traditional climate diagrams a fixed coefficient (α) between temperature and precipitation has been adopted. It has been shown, however, that such an approach does not correctly describe the conditions of the climatic...