Modélisation KMVDe La Probabilité De Défaut De Remboursement : Application A La Bourse De Valeurs De Casablanca
Journal Title: IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF) - Year 2018, Vol 9, Issue 3
Abstract
The granting of the loan by a credit institution in Morocco is a very risky operation, indeed, according to the Global Failure Index of the firm Euler Hermes, Morocco is among the countries that will record the highest increases in insolvencies (+12 % in 2017), alongside China (+10%), the United Kingdom (+ 8%), Romania (+7%), and Poland (+5%). Financial literature in developed countries is rich in failure prediction models, pioneering models are Beaver (1966), Altman (1968) and Merton (1974). But, this kind of work on failure forecasting is weak in African countries in general and in Morocco in particular, hence the interest of this work. This article examines empirically the modeling of the risk of credit default on the selected indicators of the performance of three companies listed on the Moroccan financial market. In an attempt to juxtapose previous results that were specific to developed countries, the KMV technique was used. The results revealed that, unlike work on the positive impact of leverage on the company's profitability, we concluded that changing the funding structure impacts the probability of default up or down. The results also highlight the interest for financial analysts to implement this type of tool to better manage default risk.
Authors and Affiliations
Omar Hajaji, Khalifa Ahsina, Cheklekbire MALAININE
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP414579
- DOI 10.9790/5933-0903010612.
- Views 214
- Downloads 0
The Implications of Good Governance Performance, Development Budget Allocation, and Economic Growth Inclusion on People’s Welfare in Bali Province
The welfare of the people in Bali Province is inseparable from the contribution of HDI of regencies/city in Bali Province, the condition of HDI of regency/city in Bali Province until now uneven. Many factors influence th...
Strategies for the Acceptability of Islamic Micro Finance Institutions in Nigeria
The aim of thisconceptual paper is to highlights about the strategies usefor the acceptability of Islamic microfinance institutions in northern Nigeria.Theobjectives of the paper are to discuss the acceptability and stra...
Public expenditure and poverty reduction in the WAEMU zone
The fight against poverty is increasingly at the centre of debates, seminars, symposia and workshops on economic and social development policies. This issue is of equal concern to the governments of poor countries and to...
The Effect Of Economic Growth And Income Inequality On Poverty In Indonesia
The purpose of national development is to realize a just, competitive, progressive, and prosperous Indonesian society of the Republic of Indonesia. This study aims to determine the economic growth, inequality of developm...
SME Financing for Entrepreneurship Development: Evidence from Bangladesh
This study attempts to evaluate the contribution of SME financing for entrepreneurship development in Bangladesh. The study was mainly based on primary sources of data collected through administering semistructured quest...