Modelling and Predicting the Fiscal Pressure Indicator in the European Union
Journal Title: Academic Journal of Economic Studies - Year 2015, Vol 1, Issue 1
Abstract
The main goal of this research is to model and predict the fiscal pressure indicator and the real GDP rate in the European Union during 1996-2013 using the vectorial autoregressive approach. According to Granger test for causality, only the real GDP rate is a cause of the weight tax in GDP, the relationship not being reciprocal. The fiscal pressure volatility is due mainly to the evolution of this indicator, but the influence decreases in time, not descending under 82%. More than 41% of the variation in real growth is explained by the fiscal pressure volatility starting with the 6th lag. The static and deterministic simulation generated the best predictions of the fiscal pressure indicator on the horizon 2011-2013.
Authors and Affiliations
Mihaela Simionescu, Mirela Niculae
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP177723
- DOI -
- Views 138
- Downloads 0
Fighting Harmful Tax Competition Generated by Offshore Jurisdictions
Harmful tax competition is not just tax system, but can also undermine the interests of local communities and the environment. Tax havens are a huge drain of resources from other countries (basic non tax haven) to offsho...
Comparative Analysis between Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary’s Tourism Activity
The tourism industry is composed of a set of organizations involved in meeting the needs of tourists. These organizations are extremely diverse and are part of several categories, including the public sector, the private...
The Asymmetric Effect in the Volatility of the South African Rand
This study investigates the behaviour of the volatility in the South African Rand/USD exchange rate and its impact on the value of the Rand between 2001 and 2017. The key objectives were to assess the impact of its volat...
Impact of Rational Use of Forest Resources in Central African Republic on Its Economy
Given that the economy of Central African Republic as well as other tropical countries is strongly based on the exploitation of their forests, and also CAR’s forests have been exploited since colonial period until now bu...
Analysis of the Effect of Microfinance Institutions on Poverty Reduction in Nigeria
Credit inaccessibility constitutes a major hindrance to business growth in Nigeria, where a large majority of micro and small business owners do not have adequate collateral to secure a loan. This study examined the effe...