Monte Carlo Simulation and Modeling of Schedule, Cost and Risks of Dasu Hydropower Project
Journal Title: Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology - Year 2019, Vol 38, Issue 3
Abstract
HPP (Hydropower Projects) are very complex and risky in nature. For HPP, it is extremely important not only to identify risks but also to adopt proper mitigation measure to complete the project with in defined schedule and budget. Attempt has been made in this paper to identify critical risks associated with Dasu HPP and their mitigation measure to complete the project within predefined time and budget. The research methodology involved the questionnaire survey for identification of potential risks with their probabilities and impact. Pert-Master (Oracle Risk) software was used for simulation purposes. After feeding all data in the software, Monte Carlo simulation was run at 1,000 iterations to generate most probable duration of project, most probable cost of the project, critical risks sensitive to duration, critical risk sensitive to cost and statistically analyzed critical tasks/activities, which need due consideration for successful completion of project. Simulated schedule and budget was compared with planned one to find possible deviations, which may be eliminated by using mitigation measures proposed in the last section of the paper.
Authors and Affiliations
S. Mubin, E. Gavrishyk
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP612279
- DOI 10.22581/muet1982.1903.03
- Views 96
- Downloads 0
Effect of Age and Environment on Strength of Old Baked Clay Bricks of Indus Valley Civilization
This paper presents results of experimental investigations conducted on old baked clay bricks of Indus Valley civilization of tenth century. The object of this study is to evaluate the effect of age and environmental con...
Enabling the Usability Heuristics of Agile Base Systems to Improve Quality of Local Software Industry
Many agile software development practices are promoted to improve the quality of software products. In recent years agile software development overlooked the usability features that effected system productivity.Usability...
Vibration Analysis of Cracked Composite Laminated Plate: A Review
Composites are one of the rapidly consuming materials due to their utmost attractive applications ranging from the aerospace to the agricultural products. The composite structures usually experience vibration during serv...
Translating Activity Diagram from Duration Calculus for Modeling of Real-Time Systems and its Formal Verification using UPPAAL and DiVinE
The RTS (Real-Time Systems) are widely used in industry, home appliances, life saving systems, aircrafts, and automatic weapons. These systems need more accuracy, safety, and reliability. An accurate graphical modeling a...
Investigations into the Sequential Application of Crease Resist Finish, Tannin and Cationic Reactant to Improve the Resistance of Sulphur Dyes to Oxidation
The importance of sulphur dyes are realized due to the fact that they offer an economical method of achieving dyeing of good color strength and acceptable fastness on cellulosic substrates. However, the main limitations...