Nowcasting Ukraine's GDP using a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model
Journal Title: Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine - Year 2017, Vol 0, Issue 242
Abstract
This article presents an approach for nowcasting the current value of Ukraine’s quarterly GDP. The approach uses leading indicators with a different disclosure frequency. We generalize data from a set of explanatory variables into several factors by using principal components analysis and estimate the factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model. Our system incorporates new data as they are published throughout a quarter to adjust GDP nowcasts. In addition, we research the influence of separate data releases on the accuracy of forecasts.
Authors and Affiliations
Anton Grui, Roman Lysenko
Keywords
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- EP ID EP426662
- DOI 10.26531/vnbu2017.242.005
- Views 125
- Downloads 0
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