Оцінка зовнішнього ризику за допомогою нечіткої логіки
Journal Title: Математичне моделювання - Year 2017, Vol 1, Issue 2
Abstract
EVALUATION OF EXTERNAL RISK BY MEANS OF FUZZY LOGIC Dranishnikov L.V., Suhal E.О. Abstract The article deals with the actual issue of applying fuzzy logic to assess external risks. To create a methodology for risk assessment, it is necessary to develop an expert system that would be implemented as a system of fuzzy inference and would allow to determine the magnitude of the risk on the basis of subjective assessments of all levels of security. To model the expert system, the MATLAB-Fuzzy Logic Toolbox was used - the MATLAB extension package containing tools for designing fuzzy logic systems. Fuzzy inference systems are designed to convert the values of the input variables of the control process into output variables based on the use of fuzzy product rules. For this, the fuzzy inference system should contain a base of rules for fuzzy products and implement a fuzzy derivation of the endings on the basis of premises or conditions represented in the form of fuzzy linguistic utterances. Managers have set themselves the task of assessing the risk of operating activities of the enterprise on the livelihoods of employees and residents of the territory located near the enterprise. To do this, input variables were assigned, which are risk factors: the reliability of the vital safety system; the consequences of a chlorine leak. The initial variable was the degree of risk. To assess the first of the input variables, the expert compiled a table of criteria for the reliability of the life safety system, according to which the group assessed it at the enterprise. To define the membership functions, a trapezoidal and triangular shape was used. The evaluation of the second input variable was based on an analysis of the chlorine pressure (concentration) in the reservoir. To do this, the experts compiled a table of the "seriousness" of consequences in the event of a chlorine leak. According to the formulated rules, and using the Mamdani's fuzzy withdrawal algorithm, an initial risk assessment was obtained. The authors believe that this technique makes it possible to assess the risks of industrial safety with the use of fuzzy logic and allows us to visually present the state of the life safety system, as well as to comprehensively evaluate possible security threats and obtain risk assessments. References [1] Kachinsky A.B. Bezpeka, zagrosi і risik: naukovі kontseptії ta matematicheskie metody / A.B. Kachinsky. – Київ, 2004.–472с. [2] Stoetsky V.F. Managed techno-non-baked goods ob'ektiv pidvitcheny nebespeki / V.F. Stoetsky, L.V. Dranishnikov, A.D. Esipenko, V.M. Zhartovskiy, A.V. Naivert. – Ternopil: "Vidavnitstvo Aston". 2006. – 408s. [3] Dranishnikov L.V. Systemic Rizik-Analiz Technogenic Avar / L.V. Dranishnikov // Zh. Matematichne modelyuvannya. Дніпродзержинськ: ДДТУ. – No. 1 (32). – P.22–28. [4] Stoetsky V.F. Risk assessment in case of technogenic accidents / V.F. Stoetsky, L.V. Dranishnikov, V.I. Golinko // Naukovyi visnik NSU. – 2014. – No. 3 – P. 117–124.
Authors and Affiliations
Л. В. Дранишников, Є. О. Сугаль
Keywords
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