On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods
Journal Title: Бізнес Інформ - Year 2013, Vol 11, Issue 0
Abstract
The article considers data on the gross domestic product, consumer expenditures, gross investments and volume of foreign trade for the national economy. It is assumed that time is a discrete variable with one year iteration. The article uses finite-difference equations. It considers models with a high degree of the regulatory function of the state with respect to the consumer market. The econometric component is based on the hypothesis that each of the above said macro-economic indicators for this year depends on the gross domestic product for the previous time periods. Such an assumption gives a possibility to engage the least-squares method for building up linear models of the pair regression. The article obtains the time series model, which allows building point and interval forecasts for the gross domestic product for the next year based on the values of the gross domestic product for the current and previous years. The article draws a conclusion that such forecasts could be considered justified at least in the short-term prospect. From the mathematical point of view the built model is a heterogeneous finite-difference equation of the second order with constant ratios. The article describes specific features of such equations. It illustrates graphically the analytical view of solutions of the finite-difference equation. This gives grounds to differentiate national economies as sustainable growth economies, one-sided, weak or being in the stage of successful re-formation. The article conducts comparison of the listed types with specific economies of modern states.
Authors and Affiliations
Yulian Polshkov
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP109954
- DOI -
- Views 87
- Downloads 0
Provisions for cost reduction in breeding horse breeding in Ukraine
The article reserves to reduce the cost justified by the content breeding of horses on farms in Ukraine. Determined the total cost per head of their structure. When milking breed mares manufacturing cost per head of youn...
Substantiating the Indicators for Evaluating the Activities of Commodity Exchanges for Sale of Agricultural Products
The article determines the main indicators of the commodity exchange activity that provides the ability to analyze, prognosticate and make managerial decisions as to leadership of the exchanges, so to potential and exist...
Analysis of Theoretical and Practical Aspects of Process-Oriented Enterprise Management
The article is devoted determination of essence of process approach in the process of consideration of his The article is devoted to the systematic nature of the historical development of theoretical definitions of the t...
Resourcing of the Strategic Position of the Enterprise
In the article is grounded, that the strategic position of the enterprise is inseparably linked with the business strategy and depends on the behavior pattern chosen by the enterprise. Management of the strategic positio...
Integrated Estimation of the Security of Insurance Market in Ukraine
The article presents the authors' definition of the category of «insurance market security», taking into account the interaction of development processes at the micro and macro levels of the management hierarchy system....