Projections of changes in heavy precipitation in the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains
Journal Title: Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management Research and Operational Applications - Year 2017, Vol 5, Issue 2
Abstract
Heavy and/or long-lasting precipitation events in the Tatra Mountains and their northern foothills may cause floods that propagate downstream in the Vistula River and inundate large areas of Poland. In a warmer climate, future precipitation extremes could be higher than they are today, hence the flood risk potential is likely to grow. Therefore, assessment of these future changes and adaptation to changes in flood risk are of considerable interestand importance. In this study, seven global climate models were used to get insight into a range of changes in the characteristics of mean and heavy precipitation: this was done for two climate scenarios – A1B and A2 of the SRESfamily. With the help of the so-called delta-change method and based on responses from global climate models, projections were made for 11 precipitation stations in the region. Analyses were made of various indices, such asannual totals, maximum 24 h, 5-day; 10-day, monthly maximum sums of precipitation and also numbers of days with intense precipitation equal or above the thresholds of 30 and 50 mm per day. It was found that all GCM models underexamination projected an increase in mean annual precipitation totals as well as in heavy precipitation in the future time horizon studied here (2080-2100).
Authors and Affiliations
Iwona Pińskwar, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Adam Choryński
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP544684
- DOI 10.26491/mhwm/69005
- Views 82
- Downloads 0
Sedimentation of load in a step-pool rock ramp fishway with biotechnical embedded elements
One of the fundamental actions undertaken to preserve the ecological continuity of rivers is to design and construct fishways. The considerable demand for and insistence on the construction of such structures has resulte...
Project RIOT – ”Ring of Threats” as an example of Decision Support System (DSS). Concept and Realization
The current state of knowledge and the latest trends and examples of decision support systems (DSSs) are presented in this paper. Special emphasis was placed on a DSS proposal based on post-processed numerical weather fo...
The impact of climatic conditions of spring flood formation on hydrograph shape of the Desna River
Climatic factors are the most important of all the factors that influence the hydrograph shape of a river; this is because they are dynamic in space and time. The presence of hydrographs with a similar shape in long-term...
Water management in the Vistula delta (Poland)
This paper presents past and recent water management in the area called the Vistula Delta Fens (Zulawy Fens). This area (56 x 56 km) is located at the outlet of the Vistula River to the Baltic Sea, at the shore of the Gu...
Long-term total solar radiation variability at the Polish Baltic coast in Kołobrzeg within the period 1964-2013
This study is based on a 50-year data series (1964-2013) of total solar radiation (G) from the Kołobrzeg - station that is located on the Polish Baltic Sea coast and is characterised by a very high level of air quality....