Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Using Flower Pollination Algorithm
Journal Title: International Scientific and Vocational Studies Journal - Year 2017, Vol 1, Issue 1
Abstract
Electricity is natural but not a storable resource and has a vital role in modern life. Balancing between consumption and production of the electricity is highly important for power plants and production facilities. Researches show that electricity load consumption characteristic is highly related to exogenous factors such as weather condition, day type (weekdays, weekends and holidays etc.), seasonal effects, economic and politic changes (crisis, elections etc.). In this study, we propose a short-term load forecasting models using artificial intelligence based optimization technique. Proposed 5 different empirical models were optimized using flower pollination algorithm (FPA). Training and testing phase of the proposed models held with historical load and weather temperature dataset for the years between 2011-2014. Forecasting accuracy of the models was measured with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and monthly minimum approximately %1,79 for February 2013. Results showed that proposed load forecasting model is very competent for short-term load forecasting.
Authors and Affiliations
Volkan ATEŞ, Necaattin BARIŞÇI
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP35715
- DOI -
- Views 398
- Downloads 0
The Mesozoic Stratigraphy And Ammonite Fauna Of Ladik-Akdag (Samsun) Territory
This paper presents , it is aimed to reveal Mesozoic stratigraphy of Ladik-Akdag region in detail. In the study area, rocks formed in various facies which are different from each other are observed. On the basis of the r...
Improved Compound Multiphase Waveforms with Additional Amplitude Modulation (periodic mode) for Marine Radars
This paper has presented the basis of a compound multiphase waveform design with additional amplitude modulation, capable of controlling a waveform pick-factor, suitable for use with marine radar. The waveform shows goo...
Equivalent Stress Analysis of Functionally Graded Rectangular Plates by Genetic Programming
In this study, the sets of equation were extracted by Genetic Programming (GP) for thermal stress analysis of one-dimensional functionally graded rectangular plates. First, thermal stress analyses were performed using a...
Microstructural Evaluation of Cement Mortars with Blast Furnace Slag Exposed to Sulfate Attack
Sulfate is a major chemical threat to concrete and reinforced concrete structures. In this study, a micro-structural analysis of the effects of sulfate on cement mortars with blast furnace slag substitution was conducte...
A Comparison of Five Methods for Missing Value Imputation in Data Sets
The missing values in the data sets do not allow for accurate analysis. Therefore, the correct imputation of missing values has become the focus of attention of researchers in recent years. This paper focuses on a compar...