Simple eye movement metrics can predict future decision making performance: The case of financial choices
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2019, Vol 14, Issue 3
Abstract
Decisions are often delegated to experts chosen based on their past performance record which may be subject to noise. For instance, a person with little skill could still make a lucky decision that proves correct ex-post, while a skilled expert could make the best possible use of available information to reach a decision that, with hindsight, turns out incorrect. We aimed to show that one could assess decision skills more accurately when analyzing not only the observed decisions, but also the decision-making process. Incorporating eye-tracking into an established behavioral finance experimental framework, we found that making an eye transition between pieces of information that previous research associated with bias makes one less likely to make good financial decisions in future trials. Thus, even the simplest, easy to obtain eye metrics could allow us to more accurately judge if a person’s performance is a reflection of skill, or down to luck and unlikely to be reproduced in the future.
Authors and Affiliations
Michał Król and Magdalena Ewa Król
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP678413
- DOI -
- Views 143
- Downloads 0
Individuals’ insight into intrapersonal externalities
An intrapersonal externality exists when an individual’s decisions affect the outcomes of her future decisions. It can result in decreasing or increasing average returns to the rate of consumption, as occurs in addiction...
Relative thinking in consumer choice between differentiated goods and services and its implications for business strategy
The article shows that when people consider differentiated goods or services that differ in price and quality, they exhibit a decision-making bias of “relative thinking”: relative price differences affect them even when...
A new test of the risk-reward heuristic
Risk and reward are negatively correlated in a wide variety of environments, and in many cases this trade off approximates a fair bet. Pleskac and Hertwig (2014) recently proposed that people have internalized this relat...
Responsibility judgments of wins and losses in the 2013 chess championship
We report two studies on the perceived responsibility of opponents competing for a goal that can be attained by only one of them. Responsibility judgments were collected in seven samples of lay people and experts before,...
Compensatory versus noncompensatory models for predicting consumer preferences
Standard preference models in consumer research assume that people weigh and add all attributes of the available options to derive a decision, while there is growing evidence for the use of simplifying heuristics. Recent...