Stream Flow Response to Skilled and Non-linear Bias Corrected GCM Precipitation Change in the Wami River Sub-basin, Tanzania
Journal Title: International Journal of Environment and Climate Change - Year 2014, Vol 4, Issue 4
Abstract
The reliability of stream flow projection under changing climate cannot be guaranteed if the General Circulation Model (GCM) used for the projection of future climate does not predict well its past climate. In this study stream flows in the Wami River sub-basin were simulated under changing climate by the skilled and non-linear bias corrected GCM using a physically based and semi distributed rainfall runoff model, SWAT. The SWAT model was setup using the terrain, land use, soil, precipitation and temperature data. The baseline water uses were used to naturalise stream flows and the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the historical stream flows. In addressing future runoff projections the domestic, livestock, irrigation and industrial water demands in the sub-basin were projected to the year 2039 using the current irrigation area growth rates, Tanzania vision 2025 and development plans for the Wami River sub-basin. The GCMs were incorporated in the hydrological model so as to factor in the effects of climate change. Precipitation was selected as the changing climatic variable for projection because runoff is very sensitive to precipitation as compared to other climatic variables like temperature. A total of twenty four GCMs from CMIP3 database representing twentieth century precipitation were interpolated into forty five sub-catchments in the sub-basin and evaluated for their skills. The HADCM3 model was selected due to its highest skill score in predicting past climate. Then the HADCM3 precipitation signal of scenario A2, was corrected by Non-linear Bias Correction (NBC) in the forty five sub-catchments in the sub-basin and used to simulate future stream flow. The results of stream flow simulated using skilled and non-linear corrected HADCM3 precipitation signal shows that stream flow is projected to increase for the near term climatology (2010 – 2039).
Authors and Affiliations
Frank Joseph Wambura
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP350491
- DOI 10.9734/BJECC/2014/13457
- Views 129
- Downloads 0
Editorial: Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation on Water Quality and Ecological Health in Aquatic Systems
The increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is projected to cause climate change and global warming. The understanding of climate change impacts on water quality in aquatic systems (...
An Analysis of Climate Forcings from the Central England Temperature (CET) Record
The Central England Temperature (CET) record is the world's longest instrument-based temperature record and covers the years 1659-present. The temperature variation of 0.8°C between the Maunder Sunspot Minimum in the lat...
A Case Study of Flow Regulators Installed in Washroom Taps within an Office Building
Aim: To evaluate the operational performance of water efficiency products in order to report the actual-versus-potential impact on water demand. Study Design: The study monitored the volume of water used from taps situa...
Impact Assessment of Hydrology and Water Quality in the Saugahatchee Creek under Projected Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios Using WARMF
The hydrology and water quality of a stream or reservoir can be affected due to rapid urbanization and land use change in its watershed. Climate change, if it occurs, is likely to have additional impacts on hydrology and...
Investigation of Groundwater Contribution to Stream Flow under Climate and Land Use Changes: A Case Study in British Columbia, Canada
Groundwater contributes a significant proportion of stream flow, and its contribution varies temporally throughout the year. The objective of this study was to investigate the temporal dynamics of groundwater contributio...