STUDY ON RAINFALL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF INDIA
Journal Title: International Journal of Agriculture Sciences - Year 2016, Vol 8, Issue 53
Abstract
The present research included rainfall probability analysis of previous 114 years rainfall data (1901-2014) with a major object to forecast the yearly rainfall of India. The observed values were computed by Weibulls formula. The annual rainfall values were estimated by two prediction models using Gumbel and Log Normal distributions. The rainfall data in the Log Normal and Gumbel distribution and their equivalent rainfall events were estimated by Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) or Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for goodness of fit. It clearly indicates that the Gumbel distribution was found to be the best model for forecasting yearly rainfall (mm). Whereas Log Normal distribution is fairly close to the observed annual rainfall of previous 114 years (mm).
Authors and Affiliations
MOHD ASIM
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