THE CONSUMER LOAN’S PAYMENT DEFAULT PREDICTIVE MODEL: AN APPLICATION IN A TUNISIAN COMMERCIAL BANK
Journal Title: Asian Economic and Financial Review - Year 2016, Vol 6, Issue 1
Abstract
For the alarming growth in consumer credit in recent years, consumer credit scoring is the term used to describe methods of classifying credits? applicants as `good? and `bad? risk classes.. In the current paper, we use the logistic regression as well as the discriminant analysis in order to develop predictive models allowing to distinguish between ?good? and ?bad? borrowers. The data have been collected from a commercial Tunisian bank over a 3-year period, from 2010 to 2012. These data consist of four selected and ordered variables. By comparing the respective performances of the Logistic Regression (LR) and the Discriminant Analysis (DA), we notice that the LR model yields a 89% good classification rate in predicting customer types and then, a significantly low error rate (11%), as compared with the DA approach (where the good classification rate is only equal to 68.49%, leading to a significantly high error rate, i.e. 31.51%).
Authors and Affiliations
Lobna Abid*| University of Sfax, Department of Economic Development, Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax, Tunisia, Afif Masmoudi| Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences of Sfax, Tunisia, Sonia Zouari-Ghorbel| University of Sfax, Department of Economic Development, Institut of Business Administration of Sfax, Tunisia
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP2245
- DOI -
- Views 528
- Downloads 48
DO NEGATIVE INCIDENTS AND CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY INFLUENCE ON SPONSORS’ STOCK ABNORMAL RETURNS?
This study aimed at introducing the panel data analysis to explore the determinants and the effect of ethics violations on the abnormal returns of the sponsors of Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) by using the...
DESIGN OF A CGE MODEL TO EVALUATE INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES: AN APPLICATION FOR IRAN
The present paper attempts to design a country scale Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assessment the effects of investment in transport infrastructure. Unlike the previous studies, our model covers impact...
DERIVATIVE USE OF TURKISH INVESTMENT FUNDS DURING THE 2008-09 FINANCIAL CRISIS
This paper centers on the question of how derivatives were utilized by investment fund managers in the course of 2008-09 global financial crisis. In this vein, we analyze investment funds defined as mutual funds and inve...
THE EFFECT OF VALUATION RATIOS, GOLD PRICE, AND PETROLEUM PRICE ON EQUITY RETURNS: A COMPARISON OF STATIC PANEL AND QUANTILE REGRESSIONS
The purpose of this paper is to investigate to impact of valuation ratios, oil price changes and gold price changes on equity returns using static panel regression and quantile regression for 25 industrial firms at ISE (...
THE STUDY OF STAFF SATISFACTION IN CONSULTING CENTER SYSTEM—A CASE STUDY OF JOB CONSULTING CENTERS IN HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM
The topic of job satisfaction has been investigated over the years. However, the environmental impact of the work of job consulting centre?s employee satisfaction is beginning to attract the attention of the researcher....