YAPISAL KIRILMA ALTINDA TİCARİ DIŞA AÇIKLIĞIN ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÖRNEĞİ
Journal Title: Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi - Year 2019, Vol 6, Issue 2
Abstract
Bu çalışmada ticari dışa açıklığın enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi, Türkiye ekonomisi bağlamında 1970- 2015 döneminde araştırılmıştır. Serilerin durağanlık derecelerinin tespiti için DF-GLS, KPSS ve Ng-Perron geleneksel birim kök testleri ile Vogelsang-Perron yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen birim kök test sonuçları, seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespiti için ARDL sınır testinin kullanımına imkân sunmuştur. Sınır testi sonuçları, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını desteklemiştir. Uzun dönem sonuçlarına göre, ticari dışa açıklığın enerji tüketimini pozitif etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri araştırılmıştır. Nedensellik sonuçları, ticari dışa açıklık ile enerji tüketimi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını belirlemiştir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye ekonomisi için önemli politika önerileri sunabilmektedir. EXTENDED SUMMARY Research Problem: This study’s main aim is to investigate the link between trade openness and energy consumption over the period 1970-2015 in the example of Turkish economy. In other words, we examined the impact of trade openness on energy consumption in Turkey. The empirical results obtained from the study will provide important energy policy implications for Turkish economy. Research Questions: Is trade openness an important determinant of energy policy? Does trade openness positively affects energy demand and consumption? Does trade openness decrease energy demand and consumption? Literature Review: The theoretical literature suggests two hypotheses regarding with the link between trade openness and energy consumption. According the first hypothesis, trade openness has a positive effect on energy consumption. Here, market liberalization increases investments and industrialization, therefore, economic growth and energy demand are occured. According to the second hypothesis, trade openness negatively affects energy consumption. Here, market liberalization causes energy efficiency technologies and products, therefore, energy consumption is decreased due to the high energy efficiency. The empirical literature has generally presented complex and inconsistent results. In addition, there exists very limited studies related with Turkish economy. We used trade openness as a main determinant of energy consumption function. We made use of several databases such as Science Direct, Springer, Wiley Online Library, Taylor and Francis, and World Bank to cary out this study. Methodology: This study has used several econometric methods to deal with the link between trade openness and energy consumption for Turkish economy. We followed a four-step empirical strategy to analyze the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption. In the first step, we used the DF-GLS, KPSS and Ng-Perron conventional unit root tests and Vogelsang-Perron unit root test with structural break to investigate the unit root properties of the variables. In the second step, the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration was employed to test the existence of long run relationship between the variables. This approach has important advantages compared with the classical cointegration tests such as Johansen, Engle-Granger and Stock-Watson tests. In the third step, we used the OLS estimation technique to estimate the long run and the short run parameters in the context of ARDL model. In the final step, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was applied to examine the causal linkages between the variables. Results and Conclusions: The results of DF-GLS, KPSS and Ng-Perron unit root tests showed that the variables were stationary at their first difference. Vogelsang-Perron AO unit root test results showed that trade openness, urbanization and financial development were stationary at their level. Energy consumption, per capita real income and capital were found stationary at their first difference. All the unit root test results allowed the use of the ARDL bounds testing approach to determine the long run relationships between the variables. The results of ARDL bounds test indicated that there was a long run relationship between the variables. The long run results showed that economic growth, trade openness and capital increased energy consumption over the period. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test results revealed that there was bi-directional causality between trade openness and energy consumption. All the empirical results confirmed the hypothesis of existence of a positive link between trade openness and energy consumption. All the empirical results also confirmed that the trade openness based energy consumption approach was valid for Turkish economy. The empirical evidences revealed that trade openness has an important role in increasing energy demand and consumption for Turkish economy. Firstly, a positive effect of trade openness on energy consumption can be related to the rapid industrialization and economic development induced by trade openness. These developments cuses an increase in energy demand. Secondly, trade liberalization bring about more investments in various sectors of the economy and positively affects economic activities and energy use of households and firms. Finally, market liberalization in Turkey does not bring about more investments in energy efficiency technologies.
Authors and Affiliations
Murat ÇETİN, Selin Saygın
Keywords
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- EP ID EP637789
- DOI 10.30798/makuiibf.534538
- Views 110
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