Economic Impact of the Recent Decrease in Social Security Contributions in Ukraine
Journal Title: Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine - Year 2016, Vol 0, Issue 237
Abstract
Social security contributions paid by firms were massively reduced in January 2016. We employ a state-of-the-art DSGE model to assess the effects of this measure on output, private consumption, and other key macroeconomic variables. We find that it significantly boosts GDP and consumption while reducing inflation, and that these effects are sizable both in the short-term and in the long-term. We also report that the short-term impact is significantly stronger under an inflation targeting regime than under exchange rate stabilization.
Authors and Affiliations
Philipp Engler, Simon Voigts, Robert Kirchner, Oleksandra Betliy
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP426506
- DOI 10.26531/vnbu2016.237.020
- Views 139
- Downloads 0
Land Reform in the Credit Cycle Framework: The Case of Ukraine
In this work I show that land reform can affect business cycle dynamics through the financial accelerator. For this purpose, I employed a conventional framework for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models with coll...
The NBU Approach to Stress Testing the Ukrainian Banking System
This paper gives a review of the stress testing methodology developed by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assessing the robustness of the Ukrainian banking...
What Drives the Difference between Online and Official Price Indexes?
This paper examines the associations between online price indexes and official statistics. First, we generate online CPI component sub-indexes, which are later aggregated to an Online Price CPI. This approach is applied...
Nowcasting Ukraine's GDP using a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model
This article presents an approach for nowcasting the current value of Ukraine’s quarterly GDP. The approach uses leading indicators with a different disclosure frequency. We generalize data from a set of explanatory vari...
Applications for DSGE Models in Central Banking: Key Issues Explored During Research Workshop of the National Bank of Ukraine
This paper reviews a research workshop that was held by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in November 2018 on the application of DSGE models in central banking. We summarize the discussion of the advantages and drawback...