MODELLING AND FORECASTING INBOUND TOURISM DEMAND TO ISTANBUL: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Journal Title: European Journal of Business and Social Sciences - Year 2014, Vol 2, Issue 12

Abstract

In an increasingly completive industry, government bodies, managers and practitioners in tourism sector are faced with the necessity of forecasting future tourism demand for effective planning. In this study, it is aimed to determine the forecasting model that provides the best performance when compared the ex post forecast accuracy of different exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins models which were to forecast the monthly inbound tourism demand to Istanbul by the model giving best results. As a conclusion of the assessment of experimental results, it has been observed that forecasts by the seasonal exponential smoothing models have provided quite good results. On the other hand, SARIMA (2,0,0)(1,1,0)12 model has showed best forecast accuracy with lowest deviation (MAPE % 3,42) among the all applied models. By the means of this model, it has been generated the monthly inbound tourism demand forecast to Istanbul years 2014 and 2015.

Authors and Affiliations

Murat Çuhadar, Assistant Prof. PhD| Süleyman Demirel University, Egirdir Vocational School of Higher Education, Tourism & Hotel Administration Dept. Turkey E-mail: muratcuhadar@sdu.edu.tr Mobile: +90 246 5442801010

Keywords

Related Articles

CONSUMERS’ KNOWLEDGE ON INTEREST RATES AND REPAYMENT PERIOD ON CREDIT SOURCE

Quantitative approach was adopted where descriptive research design was be applied. A sample of 100 potential and existing credit consumers was used to collect data using a questionnaire, by visiting lending institut...

AN INVESTIGATION ON FACTORS CONTRIBUTING INTO PREVENTION OF TAX OFFICERS FROM BEING FINANCIALLY CORRUPTED (CASE STUDY: IRANIAN MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND FINANCE)

The present research is aimed at investigating the factors contributing into prevention of tax officers from financial corruption (case study: Iranian Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance (MEAF)). Statistical popu...

ANALYSE DE LA DURABILITE DE LA COHESION SOCIALE DANS L’OUEST DE LA CÔTE D’IVOIRE : UNE MISE EN ŒUVRE EMPIRIQUE A PARTIR DU FONCTIONNEMENT DES RELATIONS AUTOCHTONES ET ALLOGENES

Les décennies de crises socio-politiques depuis l’avènement du multipartisme à la crise post-électorale de 2010 en passant par le coup d’Etat de 1999 et la rébellion armée de 2002, ont...

PERCEIVED STRESS AND ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE OF SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS IN WESTERN REGION, GHANA

This study finds out the profile and the relationship between Senior High School Students’ perceived stress and academic performance. A total of 120 Senior High School Students randomly selected from four Senior Hig...

EFFECTS OF NETWORK STRUCTURE ON PERFORMANCE OF MINOR EVENT MANAGEMENT VENTURES IN KENYA

The purpose of this research was to establish the relationship between network structure and performance of event management ventures (EMVs). Explanatory design was adopted. 271 entrepreneurs from three selected count...

Download PDF file
  • EP ID EP10372
  • DOI -
  • Views 335
  • Downloads 14

How To Cite

Assistant Prof. PhD (2014). MODELLING AND FORECASTING INBOUND TOURISM DEMAND TO ISTANBUL: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS. European Journal of Business and Social Sciences, 2(12), 101-119. https://europub.co.uk./articles/-A-10372