MODELLING AND FORECASTING INBOUND TOURISM DEMAND TO ISTANBUL: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
Journal Title: European Journal of Business and Social Sciences - Year 2014, Vol 2, Issue 12
Abstract
In an increasingly completive industry, government bodies, managers and practitioners in tourism sector are faced with the necessity of forecasting future tourism demand for effective planning. In this study, it is aimed to determine the forecasting model that provides the best performance when compared the ex post forecast accuracy of different exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins models which were to forecast the monthly inbound tourism demand to Istanbul by the model giving best results. As a conclusion of the assessment of experimental results, it has been observed that forecasts by the seasonal exponential smoothing models have provided quite good results. On the other hand, SARIMA (2,0,0)(1,1,0)12 model has showed best forecast accuracy with lowest deviation (MAPE % 3,42) among the all applied models. By the means of this model, it has been generated the monthly inbound tourism demand forecast to Istanbul years 2014 and 2015.
Authors and Affiliations
Murat Çuhadar, Assistant Prof. PhD| Süleyman Demirel University, Egirdir Vocational School of Higher Education, Tourism & Hotel Administration Dept. Turkey E-mail: muratcuhadar@sdu.edu.tr Mobile: +90 246 5442801010
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