SYNERGETIC EFFECT IN MODELS OF DYNAMICS OF THE EXPANSION OF NON-STATE PENSION PROVISION
Journal Title: Економіка розвитку - Year 2013, Vol 65, Issue 1
Abstract
The object of this paper is to develop prognosis-analytical models of dynamics of distribution of non-state pension provision (NPP), taking into account the synergetic impact of combined effect of agents of NPP system and mass media on pension socium parts. On the basis of epidemic SIR-model the NPP distribution process is modeled as a mass avalanche-type process of changing in population retirement behavior. In this paper pension society (the working-age population over 15) has been divided into three groups: persons who are prone to self-provision of old age through the of NPP financial institutions, or potential members of NPP, actual members of NPP and persons who are not receptive to the idea of NPP. The dynamic evaluation of the mentioned above groups can be implemented under the condition that people’s views concerning NPP have been shaped by different sources of information, physical agents and mass media. Synergy, reflected in probable growth due to application within the NPP system under the influence of those information sources, is considered with the help of indicators of the degree of distrust to NPP institutions. The value of media impact has been conducted by introducing the coefficient of outreach of social informational advertising referring NPP and the indicators of the level of distrust to the media. In this paper on the basis of theory of differential and difference equations the author has developed dynamic model of pension socium groups in continuous and discrete forms. Based on the model of NPP distribution dynamics in the discrete form a number of scenarios of NPP development in Ukraine for the period until 2021 has been simulated. In this paper we got the numerical results, indicating that due regard for synergy effect provides an adequate description of private pensions distribution dynamics: a higher rate of growth of NPP members, reduction in number of unreceptive persons at the initial stage of development, and in the future – the rate reduction due to rejection of information of "late middle" agents.
Authors and Affiliations
Yakimova L.
Keywords
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