UNCERTAINTY MODELS IN GROUP EXPERT JUDGMENTS
Journal Title: Наукові праці. Серія "Комп’ютерні технології" - Year 2017, Vol 307, Issue 295
Abstract
The mathematical models of group expert judgments allows to process the results of an expert survey under uncertainty and con-flicting (contradictory, non-conforming) expert judgments have been proposed in the article. In real world, expert judgments ex-pressed in relation to the problem under study and formed in the same set of initial data, can interact in one way or another with respect to the information they can provide about a plurality of initial data. The structure of such interactions can have a different nature: they can be consistent, compatible and arbitrary; can be arbitrarily combined and intersected. The situations that can arise in the processes of expert panel evaluation and in which expert judgments can interact in various ways: intersect, unite, and be absorbed are analyzed in this paper. Modern theories are considered, the mathematical apparatus of which allows correctly operate with specific forms of uncertainties generated by the different structure of expert evidences. The theory of evidence allows to operate correctly with a set of exclusive and exhaustive elements. This is treated as an examination of all possible elements, uniquely defined and distinguishable from each other. However, in practice, it is not always possible to achieve mutual exclusion - some elements can overlap to a significant degree with each other. Therefore, it is not possible to distinguish completely different the elements. The mathematical apparatus, which allows to operate correctly with such uncertainties, is the theory of plausible and paradoxical rea-soning.
Authors and Affiliations
I. I. Kovalenko, A. V. Shved, K. O. Antipova
Keywords
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UNCERTAINTY MODELS IN GROUP EXPERT JUDGMENTS
The mathematical models of group expert judgments allows to process the results of an expert survey under uncertainty and con-flicting (contradictory, non-conforming) expert judgments have been proposed in the article. I...