Modelling the Frequency of Depression using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method
Journal Title: Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research - Year 2018, Vol 12, Issue 10
Abstract
ABSTRACT Introduction: Depression is a worldwide concern causing lots of adverse social consequences. Aim: To assess the stochastic processes of depression frequency through statistical modelling. Materials and Methods: The data contained the processes of depression frequency in Hamadan from April 2008 to March 2016. A total of 3252 patients, according to psychiatrist diagnosed based on DSM-IV criteria, were accounted. To model and forecast the depression incidence frequency, the time series analysis method, Holt-Winter exponential smoothing, was applied. Results: After a considerable decrease in the last months of 2010 which was followed by an increase in early 2011, a constant series of frequencies happened until 2015. The first months of 2015 are the beginning of the increase in the development of depression. Conclusion: Present findings demonstrated an increase in the incidence of depression during 2016-2018. The Holt-winter exponential smoothing method can be used as an appropriate statistical tool to analyse and forecast such data.
Authors and Affiliations
Payam Amini, Ali Ghaleiha, Elaheh Zarean, Majid Sadeghifar, Mohammad Ebrahim Ghaffari, Zahra Taslimi, Saeid Yazdi-Ravandi
Keywords
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- EP ID EP529975
- DOI 10.7860/JCDR/2018/35765.12085
- Views 68
- Downloads 0
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